Brexit and politics

I'll be honest. I fear the worst is going to happen. I don't believe the pundits who say this is the most unpredictable election ever. I think Johnson will win a majority. He could even win big. There is only the smallest of chances that this excruciating outcome will be avoided. The sudden intervention of unknowable factors is always possible. "Events" as they called. I doubt whether this forecast , for example, is an outlier. It's proof of where we are. For my own sanity I have begun to accept the result early. Play it through my mind so I am ready. But this has left me feeling depressed. I keep asking myself the same question. How did we get here? After nine years of shocking mismanagement why are we about to reward the culprits with five more years in power? I think the reasons are even more depressing than the actuality of losing. They go beyond the obvious failings of Labour and the opposition parties. They point to something far deeper a...

Predicting the outcome of Brexit and the election is nearly impossible, according to the pundits. The electorate are volatile and our first-past-the post system amplifies small changes in voting behaviour to produce wild swings. Of course, this does not prevent endless speculation. How will the decline of the Brexit party affect the Leave vote? What will Labour's position on freedom of movement mean for the Remain vote? The answers are usually framed in terms of what whole parties are likely to do. This post takes a different view. What if we look at the human fallibilities of the main players? What outcomes do we then get? The idea was inspired by watching a TED video on "emergence". This is the phenomenon by which systems can exhibit great complexity by virtue of their constituent parts obeying only a few simple rules. A school of fish, for example.   It occurred to me that politicians, when faced with a challenge, use only a few simple rules, just like fish do...