Brexit and politics

Following my previous blog post , in which I cast doubt on Starmer's strategy of silence, especially on Brexit, his speech A New Chapter for Britain was a further opportunity to evaluate his development as party leader. While the speech garnered some favourable criticism for the announcement of a Covid recovery bond, it largely disappeared without trace. Many will be unaware of its existence. One reason for this can certainly be put down to a hostile media. However, another reason was that, to be blunt, it was dull. The problem was in the writing. Marlon Brando would have struggled to deliver it. Normally, in any well-constructed argument, the central thesis is prepared for at the top. Expectation is nurtured and the payoffs are plotted. So it was something of a surprise for this line to appear more than halfway down. And that puts tackling the climate emergency at the centre of everything we do. If tackling the climate emergency really is at the centre of Labour policy, what on e...

For those Labour supporters desperate for effective leadership, Starmer looked the part. First, he removed Rebecca Long-Bailey after she cornered herself by liking a tweet condoning an antisemitic conspiracy theory - a man with brawn as well as brains. He beats Johnson at PMQs for fun. Then, in a game akin to school ground noughts and crosses, he consistently out-thinks his opponent on Covid-19 measures. Yet for all this, the polls have only moved sluggishly in his direction. The party stands roughly neck and neck with the Conservatives (39% - 39% according to the latest YouGov poll [1]). It would appear a ceiling has been reached. Labour can no longer depend on its enemy to donate popularity points. We are now down to the much tougher votes to win. Proving his competence will not be enough. He must go much further. He must prove himself on the bigger issues of the day - on which elections are won. Opinion is divided on how well he is doing. The more positive commentary portrays Starme...

  With attention focused on the US election, what can we learn that might throw light on the appeal of authoritarian populism? There is no doubt that what we have witnessed confounds our expectation of what is normal. However bad presidents may have been, none has ever sought to undermine the democratic process itself. None has ever threatened to blatantly cheat a victory. That millions of Trump supporters seem perfectly happy with this marks a terrifying moment. If more than half of the people turn against democracy, it will fail. America was, and perhaps still is, perilously close to that tipping point. The question for us, and anyone trying to understand authoritarian populism, is how entire communities can become convinced that dispensing with democracy is in their best interests? A glance at the distribution of votes tells us that Trump had more support in rural areas than the cities and that less populated areas were more susceptible to his message. We see immediately t...

  How does a party maintain power and control even when its policies are failing? Our government, whether on PPE procurement, care homes or exams is certainly failing, but remains strong in the polls. How? There seem to be two factors at play, at the most general level, and neither have to do with policy. A quick review of human traits will reveal that we can at times be highly excited or, for longer periods, apathetic and disinterested. Both can be manipulated in the service of overriding our objections to poor governance. The former is the more familiar. We are used to the provocations to take sides in culture wars fomented by our Vote Leave government. The latest pointless excuse to proclaim our colours is the “ban” on Rule Britannia at the Proms. It should be obvious to anyone familiar with Cummings that this was a put-up job. It followed the time-honoured pattern of baiting, escalation and finally topping off with ministerial statements, including in this case one from t...

On BBC Newsnight (26-05-20) [1] a note from Danny Kruger, Conservative MP for Devizes, was read out. It said, with respect to Dominic Cummings: “Appreciate the inbox and press are horrific but the PM is signalling (as he did with the sacking of 21 MPs last year – which appalled some people in the parly party) that he’s serious. BJ and DC together are why we won the 2019 election and them together is the only way to GBD [Get Brexit Done], level up the regions, and fix Whitehall – the only things which will win us the next election too. An arguable minor infraction of lockdown is totally secondary to that. Also, No 10 won’t budge, so calling for DC to go is basically declaring no confidence in PM.” Mark these words. They lay bare the inexorable logic of a government determined to achieve Brexit, whatever it costs. Cummings, by his act of extraordinary arrogance, has forced an issue that was intended to remain firmly behind closed doors, into the full glare of public scrutiny. The sin...